Publisher: IEEFA, Pakistan‑China Institute, Renewables First
Date: 2025
Source title: Repurposing Pakistan’s coal‑based assets
Intro-summary
The report builds a plant‑level retirement model using discounted cash flows for Pakistan’s 1,320 MW Sahiwal coal plant and outlines two actionable pathways: an upfront buyout or a negotiated ROE reduction, with variations like staggered payouts and a coal‑to‑clean reinvestment into a 280 MW wind‑solar‑BESS hybrid delivering 1 TWh/year at ~6.2 ¢/kWh. Under modeled cases, 5–17 years can be shaved off operations for USD ~12–294 million, potentially avoiding 27–38 Mt CO2 over a 10‑year acceleration and saving billions in capacity payments; transition credits and China’s GIFP could complement financing while addressing arrears and investor concerns. System guidance includes aligning retirements with grid planning, enabling priority interconnection, and resolving circular debt to unlock repeatable deals.
