Role of Coal-to-Nuclear Conversion in China’s Electricity System Decarbonization

February 11, 2026

Authors: Daiwei Li, Hongyu Zhang, Ying Zhou, Sheng Zhou, Siyue Guo, Junling Huang, Xiliang Zhang

This academic paper analyses the role that coal-to-nuclear conversion could play in China’s electricity system decarbonisation. Using a provincial-level power system model, the study integrates coal-to-nuclear conversion constraints and differentiates between multiple nuclear reactor types to assess long-term system impacts under different scenarios.

The results show that coal-to-nuclear conversion can significantly expand nuclear deployment and reduce total system costs, particularly through small modular reactors (SMRs), which offer greater siting flexibility and operational adaptability. The study finds that expanding site availability via coal-to-nuclear pathways could increase nuclear capacity and its share of electricity generation, supporting China’s carbon peaking and neutrality goals in a cost-effective way.

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